Because of China-U.S. trade tensions and the pandemic, many corporations and governments had already made long-term plans to diversify supply chains and re-shore production in key sectors in order to break their reliance on geopolitical rivals for key goods. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will accelerate this trend. One example of how recent sanctions will furtherRead more
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The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ %, with the Bank Rate at ½ % and the deposit rate at ¼ %. With overall economic slack now absorbed, the Bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy interest rate. The BankRead more
This note is part of a series that will be published after important data releases, documenting mechanical updates of the nowcast for Canadian GDP coming from the Scotiabank nowcasting model. The evolution of this nowcast will inform Scotiabank Economics’ official macroeconomic outlook. The Canadian labour market continued to power ahead in December according to StatisticsRead more
Canadian home sales rose by 8.6% (sa m/m) in October, the largest increase since July 2020. Listings moved in the same direction, albeit by a much smaller 3.2% (sa m/m). The larger increase in sales carried the sales-to-new listings ratio, an indicator of how tight the market is, to 79.5%, up from 75.5% in September,Read more
Canadians have built up a record amount of savings during the pandemic. By some estimates, it totals around $300 billion. This stockpiled spending firepower has fueled concerns that inflation could be higher and more persistent than currently thought, especially at a time of growing supply-side constraints. However, there are a few reasons to suggest theRead more
Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems were up 0.9% between August and September 2021, marking the first monthover-month increase since March. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in September 2021 was down 17.5% on a year-over-year basis, from the record for that month set last year. That said, it was still theRead more
Residential permits decreased 8.3% to $6.4 billion in August, the lowest level since March. Ontario and British Columbia drove most of the decline. Construction intentions for multi-family units fell 15.9%, largely reflecting Ontario’s decline (-24.3%). This was despite the approval of high value condominium projects in the city of Toronto. In contrast, single family intentionsRead more
In August, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.0% from the previous month. It is now the third consecutive month in which the monthly price increase is lower than the previous month (2.8% in May, 2.7% in June and 2.0% in July). The August index was led by six of theRead more
The total value of building permits in Canada decreased 3.9% to $9.9 billion in July. All provinces except British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador posted lower values, with the majority of the national decline reported in Alberta (-23.4%). Building permits fell 3.1% in the residential sector and 5.6% in the non-residential sector. On a constantRead more
July Labour Force Survey (LFS) data reflect labour market conditions during the week of July 11 to 17. Between the June and July reference weeks, many jurisdictions substantially eased public health restrictions affecting indoor and outdoor dining, recreation and cultural activities, retail shopping, and personal care services. All public health restrictions—aside from some masking andRead more
